A ‘hard Brexit’ could cost the EU £99 billion by 2020

LONDON — A no-deal “hard” Brexit would cost the remaining 27 EU countries £99.5 billion ($137 billion) in lost trade and output by 2020, according to UK research group Oxford Economics.

While the UK would still likely be the biggest loser from leaving the EU without a deal — losing out on £125 billion in output by 2020 — the EU would also suffer a big economic blow much higher than previous estimates, Oxford Economics said.

The analysis comes as the UK prepares to enter the crucial second round of Brexit negotiations, during which both sides will seek to clarify their future trading relationship. While most analyses have focused on the impact of a no-deal scenario for the UK, Oxford Economics’ report highlights the risks for both sides should the UK fall back on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules, which would result in costly tariffs and increase border delays on goods.

Oxford Economics

The analysis suggests the EU would lose out on around £44.4 billion directly in exports and imports should the UK fall back on World Trade Organisation rules, which would see costly tariffs charged between the UK and EU countries. That figure rises to £99.5 across the 27 member countries once firms lower-down in the supply chain — the makers of car parts, for example — are considered.