Cyber attacks, nuclear war, and a global market crash: These are the 9 biggest flashpoints threatening the world economy

Probability: Moderate

Impact: Moderate

Oil prices have recovered over the past year or so, but remain well below pre-2014 levels. Tensions still remain within OPEC, the oil producers cartel, and any escalation could cause prices to dive, with a widespread, global economic impact. Saudi Arabia, for example, could decide to ramp up production, creating a fresh supply glut.

“Having only recently started to recover from the 2014-16 downturn, oil prices would be hit hard by a sudden, large increase in crude production, and some countries would face serious balance-of payments shocks,” the EIU says.

“Developing nations, including Nigeria and Angola, would face serious debt distress, and possibly also political and social instability.”