President Donald Trump escalated his trade dispute with China earlier this week, ordering the US Trade Representative to compile a list of $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to be subjected to an additional 10% tariff.
Trump’s decision came three days after he announced tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods that would be subject to a 25% tariff.
In turn, China said it would slap the US with tariffs on $50 billion worth of US imports starting in July. China’s tariffs would target energy and agricultural products, such as ornamental fish, whiskey, and coal — which would affect some states more than others.
Business Insider used US Commerce Department data to determine the number of tariff-eligible goods from each state shipped to China in 2017.
Because of the US database’s limitations, the totals include some foreign-sourced goods that may not be subject to China’s tariffs. Those goods represent a small portion of the overall values.
Additionally, the database measures exports using a system called Origin of Movement. This measures where exports are sent from rather than where they are produced. While research shows that Origin of Movement can be a solid proxy for production, the Census Bureau data may provide an undercount for some upstream producers.
For instance, some farmers in the Midwest ship their soybeans to Louisiana for transport, which increases the count for Louisiana. Given the fact that Louisiana still relies on the shipping and sales for its economy, the data is still helpful to evaluate the pain from the tariffs — but it may undercount the lost value to some upstream producers.
There are eight US states that exported more than $1 billion worth of tariff-eligible goods to China in 2017: