Who doesn’t like earning money, huh? Everyone does. That’s why we all can use some friendly betting advice from time to time. To that end, if you’re looking just to do straight bets, there’s a new trend in NFL betting that’s been incredibly positive for some people.
Betting in favor of teams who did not cover the previous week when facing teams who did cover the previous week has a record of 39-14-1 in 2021. I know the video says 38-14-1, but the Bears-Steelers game also fell into this category, and anyone that bet the Bears (+7) got the money. This trend went 7-0 in Week 2, 6-3 in Week 3, 7-3, 5-2-1, 3-3, 1-2, 3-0, and finally 7-0 this past week. If you were to put down $100 on each of these games throughout the season, you would be $2,500 richer minus the booking fees and any specific lines on each game. Basically, you’d be sitting pretty.
In Week 9, the seven games that would have fallen under this trend in question were Jacksonville (+14.5) against Buffalo, Atlanta (+5.5) against New Orleans, the Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) against Philadelphia, Kansas City (-1) against Green Bay, Arizona (+5.5) against San Francisco, Indianapolis (-10) against the New York Jets, and Chicago (+7) against Pittsburgh. Clearly, not every week is going to pan out this way. Weeks 6 and 7 saw the trend go a combined 4-5, but that appears to be just a small bump in the road since the trend has gone 10-0 since.
So, what about this trend makes sense? I guess teams that underperform tend to bounce back in an effort to show the world that the previous week was just a fluke while teams that exceeded expectations don’t feel that same pressure to succeed. That’s just a theory though.
The biggest question everyone probably has now though is which games will fall under these circumstances next week? Here they are:
- Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) v. Kansas City Chiefs
- Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) @ Denver Broncos
- New Orleans Saints (+3) @ Tennessee Titans
- Carolina Panthers (+10) @ Arizona Cardinals
- Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) v. Atlanta Falcons
- Baltimore Ravens (-7) @ Miami Dolphins
Looking at these games, I don’t hate most of them. The only two I really don’t like all that much are the Saints (+3) and the Panthers (+10), but if I’m being honest, I could see both happening. The rest of them seem pretty solid though, especially Ravens (-7) at Miami. The Dolphins are a garbage fire who couldn’t beat the Texans by more than one possession. The Ravens should have no issues blowing them out of the water. Look for a big game from Devonta Freeman in that one.
While you could just go full parlay on these six games, I’d suggest betting each game individually if you’re going to go for it at all. Sure, the last two weeks, the trend has been perfect, but it’s been imperfect five out of eight times. You’ll make less money than if the parlay were to hit, but the risk is much lower with a still solid chance at making money. Of course, as is the case with anything I call attention to, this trend is sure to fail miserably this weekend — ain’t that always the case?
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