Bill Gross now thinks recessions happen when nominal GDP falls below 3% — meaning we’re already there (JNS)

Janus Capital’s Bill Gross thinks our “new age financial economy” has changed the rules for recession.

In a tweet Friday morning, Gross said we’re in recession when the growth of nominal gross domestic product — that is, GDP not adjusted for inflation — falls below 3%.

Nominal GDP growth hit 2.9% in the fourth quarter.

So, I guess we’re already in recession.

Here’s the chart, with the top black line serving as Gross’ new low-water mark.

FRED