Billionaire investor Ray Dalio says ‘you can know’ market returns will be just 3% to 4%. Here’s why he’s so sure

One of the most successful investors of the last decades, Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio, made a notable statement in his extended interview with Henry Blodget: Dalio said investors going forward can expect returns “in the vicinity of 3% – 4%” in coming years.

“You can know that,” he said.

In this piece, Henry explains why Dalio — and others making the same case — are so certain.

To watch the full Dalio interview, here is Part 1, “Ray Dalio on when a downturn might come.” And here is Part 2, which includes Dalio’s full discussion of lower returns.