Nate Silver’s model says Alabama is a slight favorite to win the College Football Playoff

College football’s final four is set as Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Georgia will compete for the championship.

With just three games to go that truly matter, Alabama is a slight favorite to win it all, according to Nate Silver’s model at FiveThirtyEight.com, with a 30% chance to win it all. Oklahoma is the longest shot at 19%.

When we look a little closer, we see that the final four is really just a big toss-up at this point. According to the model, Alabama has just a slight edge over Clemson to reach the championship game, 52% to 48%, suggesting that whoever wins that semifinal will be favored in the championship game. Georgia’s edge over Oklahoma in the other semifinal is only slightly bigger at 54% to 46%.

Here are the odds for each of the four teams to win the championship based on thousands of simulations of the playoff:

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