AP Photo/Markus Schreiber
- Daniel Ives of Wedbush on Wednesday lowered his Apple price target to $335 from $400, citing the coronavirus pandemic.
- Wedbush is lowering iPhone revenue outlooks by 14% for the full-year 2020 and by 10% for 2021 to reflect “the change in near-term consumer demand, lockdown conditions globally, and negative economic backdrop.”
- In addition, Ives now assumes that Apple’s 5G iPhones will not be released in the fall.
- Watch Apple trade live on Markets Insider.
- Read more on Business Insider.
The coronavirus pandemic will have a major negative effect on Apple’s business model for the foreseeable future, according to Daniel Ives of Wedbush.
Ives lowered his price target for Apple to $335 from $400 on Wednesday, saying that the coronavirus outbreak represents a “black swan” event for the company.
“Looking forward there are clearly going to be some dark days ahead for the company,” which is a barometer for global consumer spending and technology trends, Ives said in the Wednesday note. The “tragic pandemic is a once in a century outbreak that has changed the world in a matter of weeks with no timetable on when normalcy will eventually return,” he said.
Apple has shed about 23% from its February high through Tuesday’s close amid a broader market sell-off induced by panic that the coronavirus outbreak will slow global growth. The company on Saturday said that it would shutter all of its stores outside of China until at least March 27 to slow the spread of the virus, after saying in February that it would likely miss its quarterly revenue forecast due to the coronavirus outbreak.
Now, Ives is modeling a “negative stress test scenario” for Apple going forward, according to the note. Wedbush is lowering iPhone revenue outlooks by 14% for the full-year 2020 and by 10% for 2021 to reflect “the change in near-term consumer demand, lockdown conditions globally, and negative economic backdrop.”
Under this scenario, the firm assumes only Apple’s installed base consumers who can upgrade will do so in the next year-and-a-half to two years.
“Currently we estimate that ~350 million of Apple’s 925 million iPhones worldwide are in this upgrade window, as we assume going forward in a more draconian scenario that minimal new smartphone activity takes place besides this segment of Cupertino’s massive installed base,” Ives wrote.
In addition, Ives now assumes that Apple’s 5G iPhones will not be released in the fall due to the “global lockdown-like conditions,” with the supply chain in Asia still on a path to normalization.
Still, Ives maintained his “outperform” rating on shares of Apple. In addition, even his reduced price target assumes that Apple stock will gain as much as 33% from Tuesday’s close.
Apple has shed about 14% year-to-date through Tuesday’s close.
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