The 4 riders who have a legitimate shot at winning the Tour de France, according to America’s best cyclist

Andrew Talansky took his biggest win to date at the 2014 Critérium du Dauphiné ahead of Alberto Contador and Jurgen Van Den Broeck.Kristof Van Accom/Getty Images

On Saturday, 198 of the world’s best cyclists will start the Tour de France. Only four have a realistic shot at winning.

That’s according to the highest-ranked American bike racer, Andrew Talansky, in a recent interview with Business Insider.

“Given the Tour route this year, it’ll reward aggressive racing,” Talansky said.

“Unless you’re one of maybe three people in the world right now who can legitimately win the Tour this year, then, you know, you’re not looking to win the Tour.”

“So the only way to win something is to win a stage. That’s a big goal for myself and the team,” Talansky added. Asked who the riders were who could win, he said: “Froome, Porte, Quintana — maybe Contador.”

Indeed, very few riders can win the Tour. You need to train hard, pick the right parents, have a super-strong team with a massive budget, and be able to do everything well or excellent, including climbing, time trialing, and racing on the windy flat roads.

Of the four riders Talansky mentioned, three have already won multiple grand tours.

Here’s a quick look at where those four men stand heading into Saturday’s start in Düsseldorf.