Ezekiel Elliott.Ron Jenkins
The NFL season is back and the computers are picking their winners for every game.
Below we take a look at two popular systems used to pick NFL games — Cortana, Microsoft’s digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com.
In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and are not picking against the spread. However, both give a likelihood of teams winning which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.
After a rough Week 1 for Cortana, it bounced back as both models went 11-5 in Week 2, splitting the four games they disagreed upon. Overall, Elo has a two-game lead, going 21-10 through two weeks. Cortana is 19-12.
Here are the picks for Week 3, with each model’s percent chance of winning in parentheses. Games in bold are where the two models disagree on who has the best chance to win. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.
THURSDAY
- Los Angeles Rams (-3) at San Francisco 49ers — RAMS (Elo 53%, Cortana 60%)
SUNDAY
- Baltimore Ravens (-4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars [in London] — RAVENS (Elo 70%, Cortana 61%)
- Denver Broncos (-3) at Buffalo Bills — BRONCOS (Elo 55%, Cortana 57%)
- New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-5.5) — PANTHERS (Elo 72%, Cortana 64%)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) at Chicago Bears — STEELERS (Elo 76%, Cortana 74%)
- Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Detroit Lions — FALCONS (Elo 53%, Cortana 60%)
- Cleveland Browns (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts — COLTS (Elo 76%, Cortana 52%)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (no line) — VIKINGS (Elo 57%, Cortana 52%)
- Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-13.5) — PATRIOTS (Elo 82%, Cortana 82%)
- Miami Dolphins (-6) at New York Jets — DOLPHINS (Elo 55%, Cortana 78%)
- New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-6) — EAGLES (Elo 66%, Cortana 64%)
- Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans (-2.5) — SEAHAWKS (Elo 53%), TITANS (Cortana 53%)
- Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers (-9) — PACKERS (Elo 75%, Cortana 73%)
- Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers — CHIEFS (Elo 74%, Cortana 70%)
- Oakland Raiders (-3) at Washington Redskins — RAIDERS (Elo 51%), REDSKINS (Cortana 52%)
MONDAY
- Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Arizona Cardinals — CARDINALS (Elo 55%), COWBOYS (Cortana 58%)
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